New Strategic Dynamics in the Arctic Region: Implications for National Security and International Collaboration

In a few years’ time, the combined impact of climate change, a melting polar ice cap, the opening of new (and potentially more economical) maritime transport routes, growing interest in the Arctic region’s underwater mineral resources, and competing territorial claims among the coastal states could transform the Arctic from a relative strategic backwater to a strategic crossroads of global importance. This report provides a forward-looking, comprehensive assessment of strategic dynamics in the Arctic that: 1) explores in greater detail the range of security risks and challenges that realistically could arise in the Arctic region over the next ten to fifteen years; 2) examines in considerable depth what this means for U.S. military force structure requirements and operational planning, including with regard to coordination with key allies and partner states such as Canada; 3) takes a hard look at the strategic interests and priorities of all five Arctic coastal states, including a review of the perspectives and policies of key non-coastal Arctic countries and major Asia-Pacific players; and 4) evaluates how the principal security organizations and other institutional stakeholders with a role to play — including the Arctic Council, the Nordic Council, NATO, the EU, and various UN agencies — can be marshaled most effectively, individually and in concert, in support of a multifaceted, whole-of-government approach toward the Arctic.