Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0

Comprehensive and internationally peer-reviewed handbook on tools and methods for forecasting and analysis of global change. Each chapter in this series gives an executive overview of each method's history, description, primary and alternative usages, strengths and weaknesses, use in combination with other methods, and speculation about future usage. Some also contain appendixes with applications and sources for further information. All chapters are presented in an MsWord (.doc) Futures Research Methodology Version 3.0 is the largest, most comprehensive collection of internationally peer-reviewed handbook on methods and tools to explore future possibilities ever assembled in one resource in history. There are far more detailed book on specific methods, but no other resource comes close to giving the overview of such a range of methods. Each of these 39 chapters gives an executive overview of each method's history, description, primary and alternative usages, strengths and weaknesses, uses in combination with other methods, and speculation about future evolution of the method. Some also contain appendixes with applications, links to software, and sources for further information. Version 3.0 has not only added new chapters, it has also updated and improved the editing of the previous chapters making this version a significant improvement on the previous one. Over half of the chapters were written by the inventor of the method or by a significant contributor to the method s evolution: Table of Contents 1. Introduction to Futures Research Jerome C. Glenn 2. Environmental Scanning Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn 3. Text Mining for Technology Foresight Alan L. Porter 4. Delphi Theodore J. Gordon 5. Real-Time Delphi Theodore J. Gordon 6 The Futures Wheel Jerome C. Glenn 7. The Futures Polygon Antonio Pacinelli 8. Trend Impact Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 9. Cross-Impact Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 10. Wild Cards John Petersen and Karlheintz Steinmueller 11. Structural Analysis Jacques Arcade, Michel Godet, Francis Meunier, Fabrice Roubelat 12. The Systems Perspectives Allenna Leonard with Stafford Beer 13. Decision Modeling The Futures Group International 14. Substitution Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 15. 14. Statistical Modeling Antonio Pacinelli 16. Technology Sequence Analysis Theodore J. Gordon 17. Morphological Analysis Tom Ritchey 18. Relevance Trees The Futures Group International and Theodore J. Gordon 19. Scenarios Jerome C. Glenn and The Futures Group International 20. A Toolbox for Scenario Planning Michel Godet 21. Interactive Scenarios Theodore J. Gordon 22. Robust Decisionmaking Robert Lempert, Steven Popper, Steve Bankes (RAND Corporation) 23. Participatory Methods Jerome C. Glenn 24. Simulation and Games Erwin Rausch with additions from Frank Catanzaro 25. Genius Forecasting, Intuition, and Vision Jerome C. Glenn 26. Prediction Markets Justin Wolfers and Justin Zitzewitz 27. Using Vision in Futures Clem Bezold 28. Normative Forecasting Joe Coates and Jerome C. Glenn 29. S&&T Road Mapping Theodore J. Gordon 30. Field Anomaly Relaxation (FAR) Geoffrey R. Coyle 31. Agent Modeling (demo software) Theodore J. Gordon 32. Chaos and Non-Linear Dynamics Theodore Gordon 33. Multiple Perspective Concept Harold Linstone 34. Heuristics Modeling Sam Cole 35. Causal Layered Analysis Sohail Inayatullah 36. Personal Futures Verne Wheelwright 37.State of the Future Index Theodore J. Gordon 38. SOFI Software System Peter Yim 39. Integration, Comparisons, and Frontiers of Futures Research Methods Theodore J. Gordon and Jerome C. Glenn